Ang Biglang Pagbagsak ng PSEI (Ikalawang Bahagi)

Almario Jr Mendoza
is a Financial expert in the Philippines

History has proven that investing in quality stocks can provide greater returns than most investment instruments. This offers an ordinary Pinoy investor, overseas Filipino worker the best chance in achieving financial goals and gives you the ability to later enjoy the benefits of their money. Ang pangalawa at pangatlong dahilan sa pagbagsak ng PSEI ay ang mga sumusunod:

2. Ang paghina ng ekonomiya ng China.

Nakadagdag din ang balita tungkol sa hindi pag-abot sa inaasahang GDP growth rate ng China nitong nakalipas na buwan. Ang China ngayon ay may 7.7% GDP growth rate nitong first quarter mula sa parehong quarter ng nakalipas na taon na mas mababa sa inaasahan 8% ng mga ekonomista. Ngunit bakit nga ba nakaapekto rin ito sa stock market?

Tatandaan natin na malaking parte ng ekonomiya ng mga bansa ay nakadepende sa import at export. Sa puntong ito, kapag ang ekonomiya ng isang bansa ay humina, ang ibig sabihin ay apektado din ang mga bansang nakadepende sa kanya at ang inflow ng pera sa merkado.

Halimbawa, isa sa pangunahing export ng Australia ay ang iron ore. Ang China ang pinakamalaking export market nito sa ngayon. Kapag humina ang ekonomiya ng China, apektado ang ekonomiya ng Australia dahil malaking parte ng ekonomiya nito ay nakadepende sa perang nangaggaling mula sa China mula sa mga exports nito.

Ganon din ang nangyari sa Pilipinas, ang China ang pangatlo sa pinakamalaking export partner nito na sa kasalukuyan na may 12.7% share. Ang pinakamalaking export product ng Pilipinas ay ang semiconductors at mga electronic products na sya namang binibili rin ng China. Sa paghina ng mga ito, ang ekonomiya ng Pilipinas ay naapektuhan din dahil tumataas ang risk na baka humina ang inflow ng pera sa bansa. Alalahanin natin na ang stock prices ay nakadepende rin sa risk at volatility na taglay ng ekonomiya ng isang bansa. Kapag ang growth rate ay mababa dahil sa paghina ng ekonomiya, malaki ang chance na hindi rin tumaas ang presyo ng stock price at maabot ang target rate of return ng investor.

Nevertheless, making money in the stock market (equities) is not easy. It not only requires a lot of patience and discipline, but also a great amount of research and a good understanding of the market, among others. Remember that you should always avoid following the crowd if you don't want to lose your hard-earned money in stock markets. The world's greatest investor Warren Buffett was wise when he said, 'Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.' Don’t try to time the market. Catching the tops and bottoms is a myth. More people have lost far more money than people who have made money. A lot of investors lose money in stock markets because of their inability to control emotions, particularly fear and greed. Greed increases when investors read stories of huge returns being made in the stock market in a quick time. In a bear market, on the other hand, investors panic and sell their shares at rock-bottom prices. Thus, fear and greed are the emotions that should be avoided when investing, and investors should not to be guided by them. Also, invest only your surplus funds.

3. Overpriced Stocks

Ibinahagi ko sa mga nakalipas kong article ang tungkol sa konspeto ng financial ratios at valuation ng stocks. Inilahad ko na may iba’t ibang paraan upang masukat kung undervalued ba ang isang stock o overvalued ito. Isa sa mga ito ay ang P/E ratio (Price-Earnings ratio), P/B ratio (Price to Book ratio), at iba pa.

Sa kalagayan ng stock market sa kasalukuyan, ang stocks sa Pilipinas ay maikokonsiderang overpriced. Ito ay dahil ang P/E ratio sa ngayon ay naglalaro sa 22x hanggang 23x nitong mga nakalipas na buwas nang pumalo ang stock market sa 7,000 lebel nito. Ang ibig sabihin nito ay sa bawat pisong earning ay kinakailangang magbayad ng investor (price) ng 23x nito. Ito’y lubhang napakataas kung ikukumpura sa P/E ratio ng ibang bansa gaya ng sa America (S&P 500) na naglalaro sa 18x lamang.

Sa pagbagsak ng stock market, ang P/E ratio ay bumaba sa 18x na senyales na medyo lumalabas na rin ang totoong halaga ng stock price (fair o average price).

Para mas maintindihan ninyo, ang formula ng isang stock price ay macocompute gamit ang dividend at ang free cash flow ng isang kumpanya. Sa puntong ito, akin munang ipapaliwanag ang formula gamit ang dividend discount model at constant growth model.

Dividend Discount Model

P = Div/r

P = Price

Div = dividend

R = required rate of return

Constant Growth Model

P = Div/ (r-g)

P = Price

Div = dividend

R = required rate of return

G = growth rate

Makikita sa itaas na ang presyo ng stock ay nakadepende sa dividend at sa required rate of return. Ang dividend ay ang halagang ipinamamahagi ng kumpanya sa kanilang mga stockholders bilang parte ng kanilang kinita sa pag-invest sa stocks ng kumpanya.

Kapag ang dividend ay tumaas, ang presyo ng stock ay tumataas (kung ang required rate of return ay hindi nagbago). Sa kabilang banda, ang stock price ay bumababa kung ang required rate of return ay bumaba (kung ang dividend ay walang pinagbago).

As a Shareholder, a person can participate in the company's growth and success through stock Price Appreciation and by earnings Dividends. Capital or price appreciation is an increase in the market price of your stock over time brought about by an increase in its potential value and the demand to buy its shares. The faster a company can grow, the faster its price can appreciate. Profitable corporations can also issue dividends, whether in cash or in additional shares of stock as a means for shareholders to share in their distributed profits. You should also treat investing in the stock market as a business. That means understanding your own profit and loss as well as the companies in which investments are made. For example, before investing in a company ask yourself, “Is the company’s product or services improving, growing better than its competitors?"

Ipapaliwanag ko ng mas masinsinan ang formula ng stock price at ang ikaapat na dahilan ng pagbagsak ng stock market sa ikatlong bahagi ng article na ito.

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About the author

Almario Jr Mendoza

Currently working in one of the biggest Investment Banks in the world. Has extensive experience in accounting, finance, and investments ranging from Bonds, Money Market, and the Stock Market. A member of Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants. A graduate of Ateneo Graduate School of Business and University of Santo Tomas.
Profession: Certified Public Accountant & Certified Securities Specialist (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Philippines , Metro Manila , Taguig City
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