Papaano maging isang Stock Analyst? (Ikalawang Bahagi)

Almario Jr Mendoza
is a Financial expert in the Philippines

Inilahad ko sa unang bahagi ang tungkol sa konsepto ng industry analysis. Ngayon naman, ipagpapatuloy ko ang paglalahad tungkol sa mga susunod na hakbang ng isang stock analyst.


Ang susunod ay ang tinatawag na Financial Analysis. Ipinaliwanag ko sa unang bahagi ng article na ito na sa bahaging ito ay susuriin mo ang tungkol sa financial health ng isang kumpanya. Sa bahaging ito ay susuriin natin ang Financial Performance at Financial Standing sa pamamagitang ng Income Statement at Balance Sheet nito.


Sa Income statement makikita ang mga Revenues at Expenses ng isang kumpanya. Sa aspetong ito ay makikita natin kung kumita ba, break-even, o nalugi ba ang isang kumpanya sa isang period o panahon (e.g. quarterly, yearly, etc.)


Sa Balance sheet naman malalaman ang Financial Standing ng isang kumpanya. Ang balance sheet ay naglalaman ng Life to Date o kabuuang pangkalagayan ng kumpanya mula ng magsimula ito sa operasyon nito. Sa bahaging ito makikita mo ang tungkol sa datos gaya ng Assets, Liabilities, at Equity ng isang kumpanya.


Ang Assets ang naglalaman ng tungkol sa kabuuang pagmamay-ari ng kumpanya. Ito ay naglalaman ng mga Current Assets at Non-current Assets. Dito mo makikita ang mga datos gaya ng Cash, Marketable Securities (e.g. Investment in Stocks, Treasury Bills), Inventory, Accounts Receivable, Plant, Properties, and Equipments ng kumpanya.


Ang Liabilites naman ay mahahati rin sa dalawa – ang Current Liabilities at Non-current Liabilities. Dito ay makikita natin ang utang ng isang kumpanya at kung nag-issue ito ng Bonds at iba pang klase ng utang upang makalikom ng capital.


Ang Current Liabilities ay ang mga utang na kinakailangan bayaran sa loob ng isang taon samantalang ang Non-Current Liabilities naman ang tawag sa mga utang na pang-matagalan o higit pa sa isang taon. Dito mo makikita ang mga bagay gaya ng Accounts Payable, Bonds Payable, Deferred Liability, at iba na kinakailangan bayaran ng kumpanya.


Ang huling bahagi naman ay ang tinatawag na Equities na naglalaman ng mga pagmamayari ng may-ari ng kumpanya o business matapos nitong bayaran ang kanyang mga utang. Ito ay nakabase sa formula na Assets = Liabilities + Equities, na kung iyong susuriin ay may formula din na Equities = Assets – Liabilities. Sa bahaging ito ay makikita mo ang mga bagay gaya ng Share Capital, Additional Paid in Capital, Retained Earnings, Reserves, at iba na naglalahad ng pagmamay-ari ng mga investors.


Sa punto ng Financial Analysis, ang mga datos gaya ng Current Ratio (Current Assets/ Current Liabilities), Debt to Equity Ratio (Liabilities/ Equity) at iba ay kinokompute upang masuri ang pangkalahatang kalagayan at estado ng kumpanya.


Halimbawa nito, sa current ratio malalaman kung may kakayahan ba ang kumpanyang matugunan ang mga short-term obligations nito at kung ito ba ay liquid o may enough cash in hand. Sa Debt to Equity Ratio naman makikita kung isang kumpanya ay highly financed by debt o hindi. Halimbawa nito ay kung ang Debt to Equity ratio ay mas mataas kaysa sa industry average nito, ito ay masasabing may mataas na utang at mas risky kung ihahambing sa mas may mababang ratio nito. Ito ay mahalagang datos para sa mga investors dahil dito nila nalalaman kung mas risky ba ang stock na kanilang bibilhin.


Ang susunod na bahagi naman na gagawin ng isang Stock Analyst ay ang tinatawag na Stock Valuation at Relative Valuation Techniques. Sa puntong ito ay sinusuri nya kung ang isang stock ba ay kasalukuyang ibinibenta ng mas mahal (premium) o kasalakuyung ibenebenta ng mas mura (discount). Sa puntong ito ay kanyang kinukuha ang mga datos gaya ng Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Price to Book (P/B) ratio, Price to Earnings/ Growth ratio (PEG ratio), Earnings Growth Ratio, Price to Sales ratio, at iba upang masuri ang halaga ng stocks.


Halimbawa nito ay, kung si China Petroleum (SNP) ay may P/E ratio na 20 at ang industry average ay nasa 10 lamang. Ang ibig sabihin nito ay kasalukuyang ibinebenta ang stocks sa mas mahal ang halaga (premium). Kung ang P/B ratio naman halimbawang mas mababa kaysa sa industry average. Ang ibig sabihin naman nito ay ang presyo ng stock ay kasalukuyang ibinebenta ng mas mura (discount). Ang mga bagay na ito ay tinitimbang (weigh-in) ng isang stock analyst upang masabi bang mura o mahal ang presyo ng isang stock ngayon.


Abangan ang mga susunod ko pang articles, hinggil naman sa susunod na hakbangin ng isang stock analyst – ang Technical Analysis.

History has proven that investing in quality stocks can provide greater returns than most investment instruments. This offers an ordinary Pinoy investor, overseas Filipino worker the best chance in achieving financial goals and gives you the ability to later enjoy the benefits of their money.

Nevertheless, making money in the stock market (equities) is not easy. It not only requires a lot of patience and discipline, but also a great amount of research and a good understanding of the market, among others. Remember that you should always avoid following the crowd if you don't want to lose your hard-earned money in stock markets. The world's greatest investor Warren Buffett was wise when he said, 'Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.' Don’t try to time the market. Catching the tops and bottoms is a myth. More people have lost far more money than people who have made money. A lot of investors lose money in stock markets because of their inability to control emotions, particularly fear and greed. Greed increases when investors read stories of huge returns being made in the stock market in a quick time. In a bear market, on the other hand, investors panic and sell their shares at rock-bottom prices. Thus, fear and greed are the emotions that should be avoided when investing, and investors should not to be guided by them. Also, invest only your surplus funds.


As a Shareholder, a person can participate in the company's growth and success through stock Price Appreciation and by earnings Dividends. Capital or price appreciation is an increase in the market price of your stock over time brought about by an increase in its potential value and the demand to buy its shares. The faster a company can grow, the faster its price can appreciate. Profitable corporations can also issue dividends, whether in cash or in additional shares of stock as a means for shareholders to share in their distributed profits. You should also treat investing in the stock market as a business. That means understanding your own profit and loss as well as the companies in which investments are made. For example, before investing in a company ask yourself, "Is the company’s product or services improving, growing better than its competitors?"

About the author

Almario Jr Mendoza

Currently working in one of the biggest Investment Banks in the world. Has extensive experience in accounting, finance, and investments ranging from Bonds, Money Market, and the Stock Market. A member of Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants. A graduate of Ateneo Graduate School of Business and University of Santo Tomas.
Profession: Certified Public Accountant & Certified Securities Specialist (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Philippines , Metro Manila , Taguig City

 

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