Suriin ang stock price sa pamamagitan ng Fundamental Analysis at Relative Valuation Techniques

Almario Jr Mendoza
is a Financial expert in the Philippines

Inilihad ko kahapon ang tungkol sa paggamit ng Fundamental analysis at Technical Analysis sa pagsuri ng stocks na iyong bibilhin. Ngayon naman, aking ipapaliwanag ng mas detalyado ang tungkol sa Fundamental Analysis at ang mga bagay na kinakailangang malaman tungkol rito.


Ang fundamental analysis ay kinapapalooban ng iba’t ibang bahagi. Ang una rito ay ang tinatawag na macroanalysis na kung saan ay sinusuri mo ang kabuuang pangkalagayan ng ekonomiya ng bansa. Dalawang aspeto ang nakapaloob dito na kinabibilangan ng sumusunod: ang top-down approach at ang bottom up approach.


Ang top-down approach, gaya ng terminolohiya nito, ay ang pag-assess sa kalagayan ng ekonomiya mula papaitaas hanggang pababa. Halimbawa nito ay ang pag-ranking ng mga bansa ayon sa kasalukuyang real GDP growth rate nito. Halimbawa nito ay sa Asya, ang Top 3 na may pinakamataas na growth rate ay ang Pilipinas (7.8%), China (7.2%), at ang Thailand (6.8%) para sa 1st quarter ng taon.


Ang susunod mong tatahakin ay ang pagsuri sa mga bansa ng mga industriyang may pinakamataas na potensyal sa kita. Halimbawa ay kung sa Pilipinas, napag-alaman mo na napakaganda ng takbo ng media industry. Ang susunod mong titignan ay ang mga kumpanyang nakapaloob sa industriyang ito.


Makikita sa larawan sa ibaba ang listahan ng mga industriyang nasa hanay media.



Ang susunod na hakbang dito ay pakukumpara ng mga kumpanya base sa datos mula sa financial statements nito. Ito ang tinatawag na relative valuation techniques.


Relative Valuation Techniques at Financial Ratios


Ang financial statement ang tawag sa koleksyon ng mga reports na nilalabas ng mga kumpanya para sa kanilang mga investors. Ito’y kinabibilangan ng Balance Sheet, Income Statement, at Statement of Cash Flow.


Makikita sa ibaba ang isang halimbawa ng comparative analysis na isang aspeto ng relative valuation technique. Dito ay inihahambing ang ratio ng isang kumpanya mula sa industry average nito.



Ilan sa mga mahahalagang ratios na iyong maririnig sa stocks ay kinabibilangan ng P/E ratio (Price to Earnings), Forward P/E ratio, P/B Ratio (Price to Book), P/S Ratio (Price to Sales), at ang PEG ratio (Price to Earnings per Growth).


P/E Ratio – Ito ay ang halaga ng stock price na babayaran mo sa bawat pisong kikitain (depende sa currency) mo sa bawat share. Ito ay nagpapakita kung ang stock price ba ay mahal o mura kung ihahambing sa industry average nito. Mas mababang P/E ratio, mas mura ang stocks kaysa sa normal na presyuhan nito.


Forward P/E Ratio – Ito naman ay nagdedetermina ng median o neutral stock price at ang average future growth expectation ng stocks.


P/B Ratio – Ito ay ang halaga ng stock price na babayaran mo para sa bawat pisong equity (depende sa currency) sa Balance Sheet. Mas mababang P/B ratio, mas maganda dahil ito’y mura.


Price/Sales Ratio – Ang price to sales ratio naman ang presyo na babayaran mo sa bawat pisong sales ng kumpanya. Ito ay magagamit mo kung wala ang P/E ratio o P/B Ratio.


PEG Ratio – Ito naman ang tawag sa P/E divided by ng consensus na estimate ng pangmatagalang earnings growth ng stock. Ang mataas na growth rate ay nangangahulugang mabilis na paggalaw o pag-multiply ng stock price.


Antabayanan ang susunod kong article hinggil sa iba pang paraan sa pagsuri ng stock price at ang iba pang klase ng mga investments sa merkado.


History has proven that investing in quality stocks can provide greater returns than most investment instruments. This offers an ordinary Pinoy investor, overseas Filipino worker the best chance in achieving financial goals and gives you the ability to later enjoy the benefits of their money.

Nevertheless, making money in the stock market (equities) is not easy. It not only requires a lot of patience and discipline, but also a great amount of research and a good understanding of the market, among others. Remember that you should always avoid following the crowd if you don't want to lose your hard-earned money in stock markets. The world's greatest investor Warren Buffett was wise when he said, 'Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.' Don’t try to time the market. Catching the tops and bottoms is a myth. More people have lost far more money than people who have made money. A lot of investors lose money in stock markets because of their inability to control emotions, particularly fear and greed. Greed increases when investors read stories of huge returns being made in the stock market in a quick time. In a bear market, on the other hand, investors panic and sell their shares at rock-bottom prices. Thus, fear and greed are the emotions that should be avoided when investing, and investors should not to be guided by them. Also, invest only your surplus funds.


As a Shareholder, a person can participate in the company's growth and success through stock Price Appreciation and by earnings Dividends. Capital or price appreciation is an increase in the market price of your stock over time brought about by an increase in its potential value and the demand to buy its shares. The faster a company can grow, the faster its price can appreciate. Profitable corporations can also issue dividends, whether in cash or in additional shares of stock as a means for shareholders to share in their distributed profits. You should also treat investing in the stock market as a business. That means understanding your own profit and loss as well as the companies in which investments are made. For example, before investing in a company ask yourself, “Is the company’s product or services improving, growing better than its competitors?"

About the author

Almario Jr Mendoza

Currently working in one of the biggest Investment Banks in the world. Has extensive experience in accounting, finance, and investments ranging from Bonds, Money Market, and the Stock Market. A member of Philippine Institute of Certified Public Accountants. A graduate of Ateneo Graduate School of Business and University of Santo Tomas.
Profession: Certified Public Accountant & Certified Securities Specialist (Philippine Stock Exchange)
Philippines , Metro Manila , Taguig City

 

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